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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
100 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Nov 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC.
SPECIAL FEATURES Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1025 mb high currently over southern Texas is building southward, supporting fresh to strong northerly winds and very rough seas across the western Gulf of Mexico. Offshore from Veracruz, winds are peaking at strong to gale-force, while seas are ranging between 9 and 12 ft. These hazardous marine conditions will persist until early Thursday morning. Both winds and seas will gradually subside starting late Thu morning. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ Most of the monsoon trough remains over the African Continent. An ITCZ stretches westward from just offshore of northern Sierra Leone to 06N34W, then turns northwestward to 11N42W. Scattered moderate convection is up to 180 nm along either side of the ITCZ east of 39W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up near the western end of the ITCZ from 08N to 14N between 39W and 43W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama. GULF OF MEXICO Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning near Veracruz. A cold front curves southwestward from near Naples, Florida across northwestern Cuba and the Yucatan Channel to the Yucatan Peninsula. Patchy showers are seen across the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel, including the Florida Keys. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NW to N winds with 6 to 10 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and very rough seas will persist behind the front through the night. Afterward, high pressure will build in the wake of the front with marine conditions gradually improving across the Gulf from west to east through the end of the week. The high pressure will become centered over the northeastern Gulf early Sun, sustaining gentle to moderate SE to S winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh SE to S return flow over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA Convergent southerly winds to the south of a cold front over the Yucatan Channel are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of western Cuba. A modest surface trough is generating patchy showers between Jamaica and Haiti. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present across the waters adjacent to the Yucatan Peninsula and Channel. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas are noted north of Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the cold front will continue southeastward and reach from central Cuba along 80W to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu morning. It will then reach from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Fri morning, and from the Windward Passage to near the Costa Rica-Panama border Sat morning, where the front should stall and gradually dissipate. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow the front through Sat before winds begin to veer quickly NE to E and diminish modestly. ATLANTIC OCEAN A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N45W to 27N60W, then continues as a stationary front to 28N70W. Patchy showers are found up to 50 nm along either side of this boundary. To the southeast, a surface trough runs northeastward from near the northern Leeward Islands to 28N46W. Patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 100 nm along either side of this feature. Farther east, convergent southerly winds are producing scattered moderate convection north of 23N between 38W and 43W. At the Tropical Atlantic, another surface trough is inducing scattered moderate convection from 09N to 16N between 44W and 51W. An upper-level low near 31N21W continues to trigger isolated thunderstorms near the Canary Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are evident north of 28N between 72W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Farther east near the cold/stationary front mentioned earlier, moderate to fresh SW to W winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in large NW swell dominate north of 26N between 35W and 72W. To the south from 16N to 26N/28N between 35W and the Bahamas/Leeward Islands, gentle E to SSE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate northerly swell exist. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift north of the area through early Thu, ahead of a stronger front entering the waters off northeast Florida tonight, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas. The front will reach from 31N74W to central Cuba by Thu morning, from 31N68W to eastern Cuba by Fri morning, and from 31N61W to near the Windward Passage on Sat morning. The front will stall in that general vicinity and gradually dissipate through the end of the weekend. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas on either side of the front north of 25N. |
