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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Northeastern Atlantic:A non-tropical area of low pressure has developed over the northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles north-northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics on Saturday or early Sunday while it moves east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern Spain. The opportunity for tropical or subtropical development should end by Sunday night when the system moves into unfavorable environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.Central Subtropical Atlantic:A weak area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts west-southwestward through Sunday and then turns northward early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.&&High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1815 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC
.TROPICAL WAVES A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 19W/20W based on satellite imagery and on model diagnostics. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Satellite imagery continues to show an ill-defined mid- level cyclonic circulation near 12N19W. Increasing scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the wave from 09N to12N between 19W and 21W.An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W south of20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection isnoted near this wave.A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W south of 20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection isnoted near this wave.A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W south of 20N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. A few thunderstorms are activenear 15N76W .MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 14N20W, then to 11N50W. The ITCZ extends from11N55W to 11N63W. Outside of convection associated with tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 32W-35W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 12N between 31W and 38W, and from 09N to12N between 45W and 48W .GULF OF AMERICA A mid to upper-level trough stretches from Georgia southward alongthe Florida peninsula. Associated showers and thunderstorms areactive over the north-central Gulf and off far southwest Floridaalong a surface trough. Another surface trough is analyzed overthe far southwest Gulf off Veracruz. A 1018 mb high pressure areais centered over the central Gulf. This pattern is supportingmoderate SE winds over the southwest where seas are 3-5 ft. Lightto gentle breezes and 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere.For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over thecentral Gulf will prevail through early next week. A weakpressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate windsand slight to locally moderate seas across much of the basin. Asurface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds northand west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. Thesewinds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night asthe trough migrates into the SW Gulf . CARIBBEAN SEA See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection across the basin.The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south- central basin, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle over the NW basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 9 ft in the south-central portion and slight seas over the northwest Caribbean.For the forecast, the pattern will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail over the north-central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into early next week. A tropical wave will move across the tropical Atlantic and into the far eastern Caribbean early next week enhancing the trade wind flow across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds andslight to moderate seas are expected. ATLANTIC OCEAN A weak 1018 mb low is about 480 nm east-southeast of Bermuda near30N56W, connected by a trough to another low pressure area fartherto the northeast. A second trough is southeast of the first,extending from 30N49W to 26N65W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active near these features under diffluentflow aloft between an upper low to the southeast and an upperridge to the northwest. Farther west, scattered showers andthunderstorms are also active north of 25N east of an upper troughextending across the Florida peninsula. Elsewhere west of 55W, thesubtropical ridge dominates, anchored by 1021 mb high pressurebetween Bermuda and the central Bahamas near 26N68W. Fresh E to SEwinds are funneling along the north coast of Hispaniola south ofthe ridge, supporting 3-5 ft seas. Elsewhere west of 55W, the pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 2-4 ft.Farther east, 1028 mb high pressure is centered over southwest ofthe Azores, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5-7 ftseas, except fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas off the coast of Mauritania and Senegal.For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters northof 23N going into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades are expected south of about 23N, especially off northern Hispaniola through the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to strong speeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the forecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move through the eastern portion of the area early next week enhancing the trades some. |
Mesoscale Discussion 2073 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0438 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Areas affected... Parts of southwest South Dakota and western Nebraska Concerning... Severe potential... Watch possible Valid 212138Z - 220015Z Probability of Watch Issuance... 60 percent SUMMARY... The area is being monitored for an increase in severe-thunderstorm potential. The primary concerns are large hail and severe wind gusts. A watch issuance is possible.
Mesoscale Discussion 2072 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Areas affected... north-central and northeast Nevada... northwest Utah... far southeast Oregon... and southern Idaho. Concerning... Severe potential... Watch unlikely Valid 212035Z - 212300Z Probability of Watch Issuance... 5 percent SUMMARY... The threat for a few severe wind gusts up to 70-80 mph is expected to increase by mid to late afternoon. A watch is not expected due to the isolated nature of the threat.
Mesoscale Discussion 2071 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Areas affected... Lower Mississippi River Valley Concerning... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609... Valid 212033Z - 212230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609 continues. SUMMARY... The potential for damaging winds will continue through late afternoon across the lower Mississippi River Valley.
