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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1215 UTC Sat Nov 1 2025Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC
.TROPICAL WAVES A tropical wave has its axis along 65W south of 22N, moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 60.5W and 68.5W .MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coast ofMauritania at 18N16W and extends southwestward to 08N35W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is depicted from 02N to 13N between 12W to 46W. GULF OF AMERICA Ridging dominates the basin with light to gentle winds. Seas are1-2 ft across the NW half of the basin, and 2-4 ft across the SEhalf in remnant swells from a well passed cold front. A very dry and stable continental airmass has settled in over the region inhibiting deep layer moisture, with no convection presently occurring over the Gulf.For the forecast, winds will veer to the SE and S over the western Gulf today ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf tonight into Sun. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the wake of the front forecast to reach from the Florida Panhandle to Tampico, Mexico bySun morning, and from central Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Mon morning, then SE of the basin by Tue morning. Winds and seas behind the front should gradually decrease into midweek across the western Gulf, but linger somewhat in the eastern Gulf due to a tight gradient. CARIBBEAN SEA Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave over theeastern Caribbean.A surface trough is analyzed from SE Cuba to offshore southern Nicaragua. Scattered moderate convection is found along the trough and over the SW Caribbean. Earlier ASCAT satellite data pass revealed moderate to fresh N-NE winds off the coasts ofeastern Honduras and Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh trades are S of18N and E of 76W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 3-5 ft in the Caribbean E of 76W, as well as just NW ofthe surface trough, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.For the forecast, a surface trough from SE Cuba to offshore southern Nicaragua will linger through tonight with moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds just W of it. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are expected across the eastern Caribbean beginning today in the wake of a tropical wave moving across the region. These winds will expand to the central Caribbean tonight as the wave continues to move westward and a ridge reaches the NE Caribbean. Moderate to locally rough seas will be associated with the wave. By early next week, mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds will dominate the east and central Caribbean. Meanwhile, a cold front may push into the NW Caribbean by early Mon while the above mentioned tropical wave may reach the western Caribbean . ATLANTIC OCEAN A stationary front is analyzed from 31N60W to the SE Bahamas.Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible near theaxis of the front per conventional satellite imagery. Mainlygentle to locally moderate winds dominate the waters N of 22N andW of 50W. Large seas of 7-11 ft in mixed SW and NW swell are N of27N between 51W and 72W. A cold front is in the eastern Atlanticfrom 31N29W to 28N38W. Active scattered moderate convection isnoted within 360 nm SE of the front. Fresh to strong SW winds areN of 25N within 180 nm E of the front along with 7-11 ft seas, with fresh to strong NE winds N of 29N and W of the front to 37Walong with similar seas. Moderate to fresh trades and 6-8 ft seasare found S of 17N and W of 35W in the wake of a tropical wave nowin the eastern Caribbean and with ridging just to the N. Winds aremoderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters along with5-7 ft seas in mixed swells.For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will weaken toa remnant trough through the weekend. Rough seas N of 27N and E of 75W will subside through tonight. Another cold front may impactthe region early next week, slowly shifting SE while weakening into midweek. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas may follow through front initially. Meanwhile, fresh winds and locally rough seas will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Sun asa tropical wave moves through the E Caribbean with building high pressure to the NE. |
