MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Dec 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 05N09W and continues westward to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N and between 14W and 32W.



GULF OF MEXICO

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the far east and far west portions of the basin, while moderate winds are noted across the central Gulf between 87W and 93W. Seas of 2-5 ft prevail across the Gulf of Mexico, with highest seas E of 89W. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern United States will maintain mostly moderate southeast winds and slight to moderate seas through early Fri, then winds may increase some late Fri into Sat over the eastern Gulf as high pressure builds southward from the southeastern United States, and a weak cold front approaches eastern Texas. Relatively calm conditions are expected on Sun as the weak cold front moves across the Gulf, followed by weak high pressure that becomes established over the NW Gulf at that time. Fresh southerly winds are expected to become established in the western Gulf on Mon in response to a frontal system that approaches E Texas.



CARIBBEAN SEA

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing over the waters N of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in the central Caribbean, and 4-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south will allow for moderate to fresh trades across the central basin through this morning, with pulsing fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia. Winds will then diminish slightly and prevail trough early next week.



ATLANTIC OCEAN

A cold front extends from 31N68W southwestward to 26N75W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 7 ft are noted W of the front. Farther east, a stationary front is analyzed from 31N37W to 23N52W. Scattered showers are noted along and E of the front. Rough seas in N swell prevail in the wake of this front, mainly between 35W and 52W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters. Seas of 4-8 ft prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters. A 1014 mb low is analyzed near 30N19W, with surface trough from the low to 22N16W. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas prevail NE of the low just N of our discussion waters. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters, with seas of 4-8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 31N69W to 28N75W by tonight, at which time a stronger cold front is expected to be just to its north. This front will quickly push southward reaching from near 31N57W to central Florida by this evening, and from near 28N55W to the southeastern waters by Fri evening with its southern portion weakening through late Sat and while the rest of the front moves well to the E of 55W. Fresh to strong northerly winds and large N swell are expected to follow in behind the front on Fri mainly E of about 70W. On Mon, these winds will be affecting the northeast part of the area, however, rough seas are expected to cover a good portion of the eastern half of the area.