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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />0615 UTC Sat Apr 26 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />0455 UTC.<br /><br />
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ <br /><br />The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of <br />Senegal at 14N17W and continues southwestward to 01N33W. The ITCZ<br />extends from 01N33W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is<br />observed south of 07N and east of 30W. Similar convection is noted<br />south of 04N and west of 42W. <br /><br />GULF OF AMERICA <br /> <br />High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting fresh to<br />locally strong easterly trade winds south of 22N and east of 95W.<br />Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Mainly moderate easterly breezes<br />and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the basin, except for<br />light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NE Gulf. A stable<br />airmass maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions.<br /><br />For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf <br />waters this weekend into early next week supporting gentle to <br />moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to <br />fresh to strong speeds over the east and central Bay of Campeche <br />through Tue night due to local effects related to a thermal trough<br />coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds of moderate to fresh <br />speeds and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida <br />through the period due to persistent high pressure NE of the area.<br /><br /><br /> CARIBBEAN SEA <br /><br />The combination of a surface trough analyzed in the eastern <br />Caribbean and divergence aloft result in widespread cloudiness and<br />scattered showers over the area. A few showers are also noted in<br />Hispaniola and near the coast of eastern and western Cuba. Generally<br />dry conditions are found in the rest of the Caribbean. High pressure<br />north of the Caribbean support fresh to locally strong NE winds <br />off northern Colombia. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Fresh NE <br />winds and moderate seas are occurring in the Windward Passage and <br />lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to <br />moderate seas prevail.<br /><br />For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with <br />the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds <br />offshore Colombia through early Sat. Moderate to fresh NE winds <br />are expected in the Windward Passage and the lee side of Cuba <br />through Tue night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight <br />to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere into early next week.<br /><br /> ATLANTIC OCEAN <br /><br />A broad surface trough extends from 31N57W to the Mona Passage. A<br />few showers are evident east of the boundary. A recent<br />scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh NE-E winds<br />west of a line from 31N55W to NE Hispaniola. Seas in these waters<br />are 5-8 ft. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the<br />influence of a broad subtropical ridge near the Azores. The<br />pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in Africa<br />result in fresh to strong NE winds east of 25W and north of 15N.<br />Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or<br />weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.<br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high<br />pressure over the NW Atlantic and a drifting surface trough to <br />the N of Puerto Rico will continue to support fresh to strong NE <br />winds and rough seas N of 23N between 60W and 70W through tonight.<br />A frontal boundary will clip the northern forecast waters between<br />55W and 65W on Sat, bringing fresh to strong E winds and seas to <br />around 8 ft. Looking ahead, a cold front may move southward, <br />between Florida and 65W, late Sunday into Monday followed by <br />moderate to fresh N to NE winds. <br /><br /> |
Mesoscale Discussion 0565 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected... Southern Texas Panhandle Concerning... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174... Valid 260843Z - 261045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174 continues. SUMMARY... An isolated threat for large hail and severe gusts could continue for another hour or two. Weather watch extension may become necessary as the 09Z watch expiration approaches.
