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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Subtropical Storm Josephine, located a few hundred miles offshore of the United States Mid-Atlantic coast.Subtropical Central Atlantic:A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or two while it moves slowly north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong for further development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.&&Public Advisories on Josephine are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.Forecast/Advisories on Josephine are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL0615 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0335 UTC
.MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast ofSenegal near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 08N26W. Asurface trough is analyzed from 14N23W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extendsfrom 08N30W to 08N53W. A few showers and isolated thunderstormsare noted from 05N to 15N and east of 35W .GULF OF AMERICA A surface trough extends from southern Texas to the SW Gulf andthe southern Yucatan peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 120 nm on either side of this boundary. High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin allowing for generally dry conditions. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 5-7 ft are evident off Veracruz, south of 21N and west of 95W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between theaforementioned high pressure and a low pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat. These marine conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to 12 or 13 ft with these winds over the eastern Gulf on Sun . CARIBBEAN SEA A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the NW and SWCaribbean. A weak pressure gradient sustains moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin willpromote gentle to moderate winds through Fri. The pressuregradient between a developing low pressure near the Bahamas andthe Atlantic ridge will bring moderate to fresh E to SE windsover the eastern Caribbean beginning Fri night. At the sametime, strong high pressure over the eastern seaboard and thesame low pressure will produce moderate to fresh northerly windsover the western part of the basin, including the YucatanChannel. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected over thecentral Caribbean. These marine conditions will persist throughthe upcoming weekend . ATLANTIC OCEAN A surface trough extends from near 31N69W to a 1011 mb low near25N70W and then to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Anothersurface trough is noted south of Bermuda. Plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 22N and between 62W and 72W.Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and rough seas are foundbehind the westernmost trough, especially north of 25N. A similar weather pattern is present in the central Atlantic, where a surface trough extends southeastward from a 1012 mb low near 31N58W. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are found north of 21N and between 41W and 55W. A moderate pressure gradient between this surface trough and a broad ridge over the NE Atlantic sustains fresh southerly winds and seas of 4-8 ft in the area described. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by the aforementioned broad ridge, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. An exception is evident off NE South America where wind speeds reach fresh force.For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds andNE swell persist west of a trough that extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by this evening while seas will slowly subside across the waters W of 65W and NE of the Bahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the Bahamas along the trough. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over the waters roughly NW of a line from near 31N60W to the northern Bahamas on Sun. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. |
Mesoscale Discussion 2393 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026 Areas affected... Central and Eastern Arizona Concerning... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 690... Valid 220321Z - 220515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 690 continues. SUMMARY... A threat for large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado will be possible across parts of central and eastern Arizona late this evening into the overnight.
