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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1215 UTC Fri Sep 11 2026Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC
.TROPICAL WAVES Scattered moderate convection is located from 05N-15N between07W-20W including portions of Liberia, Guinea-Bissau, Senegal,Gambia and Mali. Based on model guidance, a new tropical wave follows this convective activity. The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, south of 21N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from08N-12N between 35W-40W.The axis of a tropical wave is near 73W, south of 21N and extendssouthward along the Venezuela-Colombia border, moving westward at15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted west of the wave axis over Colombia and isolated moderateconvection from 17N-19N between 73W-76W..The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N-19N between 79W-83W .MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast ofMauritania near 20N16W, and continues southwestward to 10N44W. The ITCZ extends from 10N44W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-11N west of 45W. GULF OF AMERICA A weak 1012 mb low pressure is located on the Louisiana near 30N90W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted north of 29N between 85W-89W. Moderate to locally fresh S winds areoccurring north of 20N west of 96W with seas 2-4 ft. Elsewhere,winds are gentle with seas 1-2 ft.For the forecast, NE to E winds will pulse to fresh during late night and early morning hours off the W Yucatan peninsula beginning Sat night, due to a diurnal trough moving toward the SW Gulf each evening. Elsewhere, winds will be gentle to moderate forthe next several days due to the influence of a weak high pressure over the N Gulf . CARIBBEAN SEA Fresh to strong trades with seas 6-8 ft are occurring over thecentral Caribbean between 67W-77W. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate with seas 2-5 ft. No additional convection is occurringover the Caribbean beyond that described in the tropical wavesection.For the forecast, the moderate pressure gradient from ridging north of the area to the Colombian Low will continue to force fresh to strong with locally near-gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. From tonight through Mon night, trades over the Gulf of Honduras will increase to fresh with locally strong. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker. ATLANTIC OCEAN A stationary front extends from 31N45W to 26N52W to 30N73W.Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of thefront. But winds on either side of the front are moderate orweaker. The pressure-gradient between the 1019 mb Bermuda-AzoresHigh and lower pressure at the ITCZ and monsoon trough is forcingmoderate to fresh trades with seas of 4-7 ft south of 22N. The exception is the fresh to locally strong NE winds with seas of 5-8ft near the NW Africa coast north of 20N and the Canary Islands.Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft.For the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola including the approach to the Windward Passage will be fresh to locally strong through early next week. Elsewhere, the Bermuda-Azores High situated along 30N should produce only moderate or weaker winds across the remaining forecast waters for the next several days. |
