MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Apr 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough is limited to inlad Africa this evening. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 02N30W to 03N42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 14W and 28W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N to 06N between 27W and 43W.



GULF OF MEXICO

Surface ridging remain the prevalent feature over the area, which currently supports moderate to fresh E to SE winds W of 85W where seas are in the 5-6 ft range. There are two areas of fresh to strong E winds, one of them being off NW Cuba and over the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters to 23N. Moisture advection from the E Pac and from the NW Caribbean along with upper level diffluent flow support isolated showers mainly over the NW basin where dense fog is also being reported. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will tighten tonight through Sat, which will result in increasing SE fresh to strong winds over the entire basin through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak to 11 ft in the NW Gulf Sat night and Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the northern Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the forecast period.



CARIBBEAN SEA

High pressure north of the area is sustaining gentle to moderate winds across the basin, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the Windward Passage, Gulf of Honduras and Gulf of Venezuela. Seas basin-wide are in the 4-6 ft range. Otherwise, moisture advection from a prevalent area of convection N of Ecuador and E of the Galapagos Islands along with upper level diffluent flow continue to support scattered showers and isolated tstms across the central and SW Caribbean, including Hispaniola, and the Mona Passage. For the forecast, by this evening, strengthening of the high pressure will force fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola beginning on Sat night through early next week. Otherwise, showers are forecast to continue in the SW Caribbean, Hispaniola and extend to Puerto Rico and adjacent waters over the weekend.



ATLANTIC OCEAN

Surface ridging extends from a 1034 mb high over the NW Atlantic waters into the Florida and Bahamas offshore waters where is intersected by a weak cold front that extends from 31N68W to 30N79W. Ahead of the front, a surface trough continues to support showers over the offshore waters E of the Bahamas to 50W. The remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Azores High. Moderate to fresh NE winds are behind the front. Easterly winds of the same magnitude are N of 20N and E of 40W along with moderate seas. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will merge with a frontal trough E of the eastern Dominican Republic tonight. The front will reach from near 31N58W to eastern Cuba by Sat morning, and from near 25N55W to Hispaniola by Sun morning, then stall and weaken over the far southeastern part late Sun through Mon night. North swell behind the front will build seas to a peak of 12 ft over northeast offshore waters by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong north to northeast winds behind the front from tonight through Sun. By late Sun, fresh winds will prevail in the wake of the weakening front and continue through Mon. Tranquil conditions are expected Tue as high pressure becomes centered over the NW part of the offshore waters, with the induced gradient supporting fresh northeast to east winds over the southern waters.