|
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1815 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC
.TROPICAL WAVES A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 72Wfrom the SW Dominican Republic southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 16N southwardbetween 66W and 73W .MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 09N41W. The ITCZ continues from 09N41Wto 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZand W of 47W. GULF OF AMERICA The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestwardacross Florida and into the Gulf region. Scattered moderateconvection is occurring in the northern Gulf as diffluent winds aloft combine with southeasterly moisture return flow at the surface. A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche also supports scattered showers and thunderstorms along the trough axis. The subtropical ridge is supporting gentle to moderate winds east of 88W. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail west of 88W, strongest winds occurring near the surface trough in the Bay of Campeche. Seas 2 to 4 ft prevail across the basin.For the forecast, a stationary front will reside just N of the area through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds. CARIBBEAN SEA Please refer to the Special Features section above for details ongale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia. Rough seasare with these winds. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in theGulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seasprevail across the remainder of the basin. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean along the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough.For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South Americawill continue to support strong to near-gale force trade winds across the central Caribbean early this week. East winds will pulse strong each evening into mid-week in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage . ATLANTIC OCEAN A diffluent pattern aloft and a surface trough analyzed from22N64W to 31N55W is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters N of 23N between 55W and 62W. Therest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to fresh winds south of 23N and moderate seas, except for strong winds north of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weakerwinds and moderate seas prevail.For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the forecast period, supporting moderate to freshtrades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. |
Mesoscale Discussion 1605 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected... portions of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains Concerning... Severe potential... Watch unlikely Valid 121927Z - 122130Z Probability of Watch Issuance... 20 percent SUMMARY... Sporadic strong outflow gusts are possible this afternoon into early evening. Overall severe risk is expected to remain limited, and a watch is not currently expected.
Mesoscale Discussion 1604 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected... portions of Central and South Florida Concerning... Severe potential... Watch unlikely Valid 121914Z - 122115Z Probability of Watch Issuance... 5 percent SUMMARY... Some risk for isolated damaging wind gusts is spreading southward into Central Florida. A conditional risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail exists farther south across South Florida.
Mesoscale Discussion 1603 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected... portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast Concerning... Severe potential... Watch unlikely Valid 121752Z - 121945Z Probability of Watch Issuance... 5 percent SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms may bring a low probability risk for localized damaging downburst wind gusts.
Mesoscale Discussion 1602 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected... portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Concerning... Severe potential... Watch unlikely Valid 121750Z - 121945Z Probability of Watch Issuance... 20 percent SUMMARY... Additional thunderstorms will spread across portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northern parts of Lake Michigan over the next few hours. Isolated large hail and gusty winds are possible with this activity, though watch issuance is unlikely.
