MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />1215 UTC Sun Jun 1 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />0830 UTC.<br /><br />

TROPICAL WAVES

<br /><br />The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W, south <br />of 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate <br />convection is noted from 05N to 10N and between 20W and 30W. <br /><br />The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is located near 83W, south <br />of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate <br />convection is noted where the wave intersects the monsoon trough.<br /><br />

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

<br /><br />The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa<br />near 15N17W and extends SW to near 07N25W. The ITCZ continues from<br />07N25W to 04N51W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical<br />waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to<br />08N between 36W and 50W. <br /><br />

GULF OF AMERICA

<br /><br />A 1014 mb high is centered in the NW Gulf near 29N93W. A trough is<br />over the Yucatan peninsula. The pressure gradient between the area<br />of high pressure and the surface trough is supporting gentle to<br />moderate winds N and W of the Yucatan peninsula. Light to gentle<br />winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range. Some <br />reductions in visibility may be possible over the NW Gulf due to <br />agricultural fires.<br /><br />For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each <br />afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the <br />eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves <br />westward. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas <br />are expected across most of the Gulf through early this week. <br />Expect moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas across the <br />western and south- central Gulf Tue into Thu between a trough over<br />northern Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas. <br /><br />



CARIBBEAN SEA

<br /><br />Weak ridging is north of the Caribbean. The pressure gradient<br />between this area of high pressure and the Colombian low is<br />supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central<br />Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere E of 80W. W of<br />80W, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 6-7 ft<br />range E of 80W, and 2-4 ft W of 80W. <br /><br />For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough <br />seas will expand across most of the Caribbean through the middle <br />of next week. <br /><br />



ATLANTIC OCEAN

<br /><br />A surface trough extends from 31N74W to 28N77W. Moderate <br />convection is within 60 nm E of the trough. Moderate to fresh <br />winds and seas of 6-8 ft are also over these waters. Elsewhere W <br />of 60W, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. A <br />weal 1022 mb low is centered near 31N46W. High pressure dominates <br />the remainder of the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N. <br />Moderate winds are noted N of 20N and E of 35W, where seas are in <br />the 3-5 ft range. Light winds, and seas of 2-3 ft, are elsewhere N<br />of 20N. S of 20N, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft <br />prevail. <br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas over the waters between <br />Florida and Bermuda will subside today. A weak front will move off<br />the southeast U.S. coast Mon and reach from Bermuda to east- <br />central Florida by late Tue, then dissipate as it moves eastward <br />through mid week. High pressure will build in the wake of the <br />front with fresh to strong winds off the north coast of Hispaniola<br />late Wed and Thu. <br /><br />
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.&&Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. The long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3, respectively.The list of names for 2025 is as follows:Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation--------------------------------------------------------------------Andrea AN-dree uh Lorenzo loh-REN-zohBarry BAIR-ree Melissa meh-LIH-suhChantal shahn-TAHL Nestor NES-tor Dexter DEHK-ster Olga OAL-guh Erin AIR-rin Pablo PAHB-loFernand fair-NAHN Rebekah reh-BEH-kuhGabrielle ga-bree-ELL Sebastien se-BAS-tee-enHumberto oom-BAIR-toh Tanya TAHN-yuhImelda ee-MEHL-dah Van vanJerry JEHR-ee Wendy WEN-deeKaren KAIR-renA full list of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone names andpronunciations can be found at:www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_pronounce_atlc.pdfThis product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks.A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings.NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 72 hours. For these land-threatening "potential tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and watch/warning products. Potential tropical cyclones share the naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions, being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One", "Two", "Three", etc.). The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel watches or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by radar. It can also be used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text and graphical products can be found at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Product_Description.pdf. New and updated products for the 2025 season can be found at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_New_Products_Updates_2025.pdf.You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via X when select National Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our Atlantic X feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/socialmedia/.