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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):Visible satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located over the tropical central Atlantic is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there should monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.Northwestern Caribbean and Southwestern Gulf:A trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday, and then track over the Bay of Campeche late Tuesday through Wednesday. Some slow development of this system is possible over the Bay of Campeche around the middle of the week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1815 UTC Mon Oct 6 2025Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC
.SPECIAL FEATURES Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):A broad area of low pressure, analyzed as a 1010 mb low near09N36.5W, is associated with a low-latitude tropical wave along36.5W, and continues to produce a large area of disorganizedcloudiness and showers, from 05N to 14N between 32W and 40W. Peakwinds to 25 kt and seas to 8 ft are found within 180 nm north ofthe low. Visible satellite images indicate that the area of lowpressure located over the tropical central Atlantic is graduallybecoming better organized. Environmental conditions appeargenerally conducive for slow development of this system, and atropical depression is likely to form within the next couple ofdays while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the centraltropical Atlantic. This system is expected to be near or north ofthe northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, and intereststhere should monitor its progress. Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details .TROPICAL WAVES A tropical wave is along 48W from 21N southward, moving west at10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring near this wave.Another tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles with axis along62W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolatedthunderstorms are seen from 15N to 19N between 60W and 64W .MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 14N16W and continues southwestward to a 1010 mb low pressure located near 09N37W (AL95). The ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 09N46W where it isbroken by a tropical wave, with the ITCZ then resuming at 09N49Wand continuing to 10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 12N between 10W and 25W, and from 04N to 11N between 40W and 58W .GULF OF AMERICA A stationary front runs along much of the northern Gulf coast,with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the frontalboundary. A surface trough in the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche isalso leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms nearthe trough axis. Gentle to moderate E to NE winds persist north ofthe front. Winds across the remainder of the basin are gentle orweaker, with seas of 2-5 ft prevailing across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S. will build modestly across the Gulf basin late today throughout the week. Moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through late Tue, becoming moderate NE to E through the remainder of the week. Occasional locally fresh winds are expectedin the northeastern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA Please, see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information onthe medium range forecast for Invest AL95. A surface trough paralleling the coasts of the Yucatan Peninsulaand Belize is aiding in the development of scattered moderate andisolated strong convection across much of the far westernCaribbean W of 81W. Outside of convection, winds across much ofthe Caribbean are from the east at gentle to moderate speeds, withthe exception of offshore Colombia where moderate to fresh tradespersist. Seas are generally 2-5 ft across the basin, except in theGulf of Honduras where convection is driving seas of 4-7 ft, and the northern Caribbean Passages where N to NE swell is leading toseas of 4-8 ft.For the forecast, rough seas in large N to NE swell over the tropical Atlantic waters and through the Caribbean Passages will gradually subside through Tue. Elsewhere, moderate trade winds will persist across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE winds will pulse fresh to locally strong in the northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, each night through the middle of the week. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across the northwestern Caribbean through Tue night. A broad area of low pressure associated with a low-latitude tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the tropical central Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while it moves quickly west- northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, approaching the northern Leeward Islands by the latter part of the week. Regardless of development, expect an increase in winds and seas across the tropical Atlantic waters with this system by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details onInvest AL95. A stationary front enters the forecast region near 31N40W and extends west-southwestward to near 23N69W and then west-northwestward to a 1013 mb low near 26N80W. Scattered moderate andisolated strong convection is seen along and generally north ofthe front, and also across much of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong Eto NE winds and rough seas are analyzed north of the front. A surface trough is analyzed NE of the Lesser Antilles from 15N60W to near 21N55W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 13N to 20N between 53W and 60W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen off the coast of west Africa from 04N to 10N and E of 17W.Elsewhere, a 1023 mb high near 35N20W extends a ridgesouthwestward into the Atlantic, with the associated pressuregradient between this ridge and lower pressures both in thetropics and over Africa resulting in fresh to strong NE winds from16N to 28N and E of 22W. Seas are 7-9 ft in this region. Much ofthe remaining tropical Atlantic is seeing moderate to fresh tradesand seas of 6-9 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in large N to NE swell across the regional waters will gradually subside from north to south over the central Atlantic through Tue night. Fresh to strongNE to E winds will prevail north of a stationary front, extendingfrom the central Atlantic near 28N55W through the NW Bahamas and to the SE Florida coast, through late Tue. Winds will diminish midweek as the front drifts northward and dissipates. A broad areaof low pressure associated with a low-latitude tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the tropical central Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while it moves quickly west-northwestward acrossthe central tropical Atlantic, approaching the northern Leeward Islands by the latter part of the week. Regardless of development,expect an increase in winds and seas over the SE waters with thissystem by the end of the week. |
