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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
700 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1215 UTC Thu Nov 27 2025Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC
.MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough runs westward from the Sierra Leone Coast to near 07N15W, then continues as the ITCZ from 07N15W to 08N35W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present near these features from 03N to 12N between the Liberia coast and 45W.Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms over the Caribbean offshore waters of Costa Rica, western Panama and Nicaragua .GULF OF AMERICA A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 27N92W where itstalls and then continues to southern Texas. Active showers and thunderstorms are ahead of this frontal boundary being enhanced bythe presence of two surface troughs, one over the SE basin and theother in the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong N to NEwinds follow this front along with seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and is expected to extend from near Tampa to Tampico later this morning, from the Florida Straits to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico tonight, and then exit the Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold front, with conditions improving Fri night through Sat. Fresh to strong return flow will set up in the NW Gulf Fri night and Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold front will emerge from the Texas coast Sat night and meander slowly southeastward across the NW Gulf Sun through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA A tight pressure gradient associated with the Bermuda High andlower pressure linked to the E extension of the Pacific monsooncontinues to support strong to near gales off Colombia and most ofthe SW basin. Seas with these winds are rough in the 8 to 12 ft.Moderate to fresh are elsewhere in the central and E Caribbeanalong with moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight tomoderate seas are ongoing in the NW Caribbean waters. Otherwise,heavy showers and scattered tstms are affecting the offshorewaters of W Panama, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will sustain strong to near gale-force trades over the SW and portions of the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through Fri morning. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast elsewhere in the eastern andcentral basin through Mon. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri morning, followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front is forecast to stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night, then gradually dissipate over the NW Caribbean on Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N36W through 26N50W to 24N61W. High pressure of 1029 mb N of this boundarycontinues to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds over thecentral subtropical Atlantic waters between 38W and 68W where seasare rough to 10 ft. A new cold front is emerging off of the NE Florida coast this morning, preceded and followed by moderate tofresh winds. Seas are moderate. Surface ridging along withmoderate or weaker winds and seas are ongoing elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the stationary front east of 65W will diminish this morning, as the front dissipates.A 1029 mb Bermuda High to the north of the front will help to sustain fresh E-NE winds south of 23N and in the approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before diminishing on Fri. The new cold front coming off the NE Florida coast this morning will be followed by fresh to locally strong N to NE winds. The cold front will extend from 31N72W to the Florida Straits tonight, from31N63W through the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate from 31N59W the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat, gradually diminishing from west to east Sun. |
Mesoscale Discussion 2235 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Areas affected... Parts of central Upper MI into northern Lower MI Concerning... Heavy snow Valid 271130Z - 271630Z SUMMARY... Heavy lake-effect snow bands will continue through the morning. Snow rates may approach or exceed 1-2 inches per hour on a localized basis.
