MIKE DELEONARDIS WEATHER

Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1815 UTC Thu Oct 1 2026Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC

.TROPICAL WAVES

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 31W from06N to 20N, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Scattered moderateconvection is observed from 09N to 15N between 26W and 38W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has been analyzed along 66Wfrom 19N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showersand isolated thunderstorms are occurring E of the wave axis toabout 62W

.MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and continuesto 11N36W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 10N44W to the coastal borderof Venezuela and Guyana. Numerous moderate to strong convection isseen from 03N to 11N and E of 20W

.GULF OF AMERICA

Divergence aloft, abundant moisture, and a surface trough over theeastern Yucatan Peninsula combine to produce a few showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf waters S of 28N and E of 88W. A surface trough analyzed from the Bay of Campeche along the E coastof Mexico supports more scattered showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf waters. Otherwise, a modest pressure gradientsupports moderate to fresh ESE winds and 3-6 ft seas across muchof the Gulf.For the forecast, an upper-level low will promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SE Gulf today, spreading to the N Gulf on Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will increase SE winds up to fresh to locally strong over the E and central Gulf tonight into Fri night. An weak cold moving across Texas will weaken the pressure gradient, allowing the windsacross the Gulf to diminish on Sat and Sun. On Sun, the front will reach the NW Gulf, extending from the Florida panhandle to just offshore the Texas-Mexico border to near Veracruz on Mon morning. Winds behind the front should only be N to NE moderate tolocally fresh

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CARIBBEAN SEA

Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection inthe eastern Caribbean.A middle to upper level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is drawingabundant moisture from the E Pacific into the W Caribbean, which continues to fuel scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 75W. The East Pacific monsoon trough also extends across thefar SW Caribbean, supporting scattered strong convection S of 13Nbetween 75W and 82W. High pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of the Caribbean and moderate seas. Winds up to strong speeds are observed off NW Colombia and in the Gulfs of Venezuela and Honduras.For the forecast, an upper-level low currently over the Yucatan with abundant tropical moisture will support scattered showers andisolated thunderstorms west of 80W through Fri. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean and the Colombian Low will tighten some between tonight and Sat night. This will force fresh to locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras. As a frontal boundary reaches the waters north of the Bahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken again from Sun through early next week leading towardonly moderate trades across the Caribbean

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ATLANTIC OCEAN

Divergence aloft and abundant moisture continues to sustainscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 70W.Meanwhile, the remnants of Fay are interacting with an upper-levellow to produce scattered moderate to strong convection from 22N to 28N and between 53W and 60W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found in the area described. To the SE, a surface trough analyzed from 18N33W to 11N43W is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along and near the trough axis.In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail S of 20N and west of 30W, with moderate to fresh NE winds prevailing across all areas E of 30W away from the monsoon trough. Areas north of 20N are seeing gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail, outside of the Bahamas where a surface trough along the FL Peninsula is forcing moderate to fresh SE winds. Seas are 6-10 ft across areas N of 20N and E of 30W, wherepost-frontal northerly swell is supporting these higher wave heights. Seas are 4-7 ft across much of the remaining Atlantic away from the remnants of Fay.For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W through at least Fri. Meanwhile, a surface trough - associated with the remnants of Fay - will support similar shower and thunderstorm activity over the next couple days north of 22N and east of 65W. Trades just north of Hispaniola will boost to fresh to locally strong tonight and Fri night. Otherwise, winds and seaswill be quiescent through Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach the waters off of NE Florida Mon night, with increasing winds and building seas behind the boundary.
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Subtropical Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay):A low pressure area associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay is located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. While thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development while it moves northwestward, to the east of Bermuda. Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.